Nov 15, 2024
Moderated by Kevin Baumann, Lead Supply Chain Scientist at Lokad, this roundtable brought together senior executives from the retail sector for an in-depth discussion on the challenges and opportunities of the modern supply chain.
Supply chains abide by the general economic principles. Yet, these principles are too little known and too frequently misrepresented. Popular supply chain practices and their theories often contradict what is generally agreed upon in economics.
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The balance of supply and demand very much depends on prices. Thus, pricing optimization belongs to the realm of supply chain, at least to a sizeable extent. We will present a series of techniques to optimize the prices of a fictitious automotive aftermarket company. Through this example, we will see the danger associated with abstract lines of reasoning that fail to see the proper context. Knowing what ought to be optimized is more important than the fine print of the optimization itself.
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At the core of a Quantitative Supply Chain initiative, there is the Supply Chain Scientist (SCS) who executes the data preparation, the economic modeling and the KPI reporting. The smart automation of the supply chain decisions is the end-product of the work done by the SCS. The SCS takes ownership of the generated decisions. The SCS delivers human intelligence magnified through machine processing power.
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Carol Ptak (Demand Driven Institute) and Joannes Vermorel (Lokad) debate the Demand Driven Adaptive Enterprise Model.
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In a debate hosted by Conor Doherty of Lokad, Milos Vrzic, former Head of Supply Chain at Galderma, and Joannes Vermorel, CEO of Lokad, discussed the value of S&OP for companies. Vermorel critiqued S&OP as simplistic and outdated, while Vrzic emphasized its role in tactical planning. The debate highlighted the complexities of S&OP and the need for a nuanced understanding of its role in business.
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In a recent LokadTV interview, Conor Doherty, Joannes Vermorel, and guest Warren Powell discussed probabilistic forecasts and decision making in supply chains. Warren Powell, a retired Princeton professor and Chief Innovation Officer at Optimal Dynamics, shared his career journey and insights on planning under uncertainty. Joannes Vermorel, Lokad's CEO, discussed his transition from deterministic methods to probabilistic forecasting, criticizing academia's lack of real-world application. Both agreed on the superiority of probabilistic forecasting, despite its complexity and businesses' struggle to apply it. The conversation highlighted the need for a broader perspective and a unified approach to dealing with uncertainty in decision-making.
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Conor Doherty of Lokad scrutinizes a Harvard study on AI's impact on white-collar jobs, revealing nuanced effects. The research, involving 758 consultants, assesses AI's role in enhancing productivity, particularly in supply chain management. It finds that AI boosts performance in certain tasks, especially with training, but may falter in complex scenarios. Doherty critiques the study's narrow view of AI as an adjunct to human labor, arguing for its potential to fully automate tasks, thus revolutionizing productivity and redefining white-collar work. He warns of overconfidence in job security, as AI's full capabilities could dramatically alter the employment landscape.
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Conor Doherty, Head of Communication at Lokad, emphasizes the evolution of supply chain management, highlighting three critical skills for future practitioners':' technical writing, digital literacy, and financial awareness. Technical writing is crucial for documenting complex processes, ensuring knowledge is preserved and shared. Digital literacy, encompassing coding and data analytics, is vital for interpreting vast data streams and solving intricate supply chain challenges. Financial awareness enables practitioners to understand the economic impact of their decisions, ensuring fiscal responsibility. These skills are essential for navigating the complexities of modern supply chains and making informed, prudent decisions.
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Conor Doherty, Lokad's technical writer, discusses Forecast Value Added (FVA), a diagnostic tool for evaluating the value of each step in the forecasting process. FVA integrates insights from various departments to enhance forecasting precision. Doherty notes that FVA presumes that greater forecasting accuracy is always beneficial, which is not always the case. He suggests that the focus should be on reducing monetary error rather than pursuing greater accuracy. He concludes that FVA could be used as a competence test, but does not validate the routine use of non-specialists for forecasting input.
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Conor Doherty and Joannes Vermorel delve into the distinctions between supply chain and logistics, with supply chain a decision-making process and logistics a decision-execution one.
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At the 44th International Symposium on Forecasting, Lokad's Conor Doherty and Alexey Tikhonov joined a panel discussion on "Demand Planning and the Role of Judgment in the New World of AI/ML".
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In a dialogue with Lokad's Head of Communication, Conor Doherty, Lokad CEO Joannes Vermorel discusses the quality-cost ratio in supply chain management. Vermorel emphasizes that quality refers to decision-making, not product attributes, and that client-perceived quality may not align with optimal supply decisions due to cost. He criticizes traditional KPIs, arguing they don't reflect genuine quality. Vermorel also discusses the role of Large Language Models (LLMs) in supply chain management, noting they can lead to smarter decisions but can inflate IT budgets. He suggests the quality-cost dilemma is a meta game, requiring software engineering to solve supply chain problems and assess trade-offs.
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In an onsite interview, Bruno Saraiva (Head of Stock & Space Management at Worten Portugal) discusses Worten's ongoing supply chain revolution.
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In a conversation revealing the intricacies of aviation MRO supply chain management, Baptiste Miceli of Lokad and Rodrigo Pineda of MRO Holdings discussed the challenges of standardizing inventory planning across diverse operations. Pineda detailed efforts to harmonize procurement strategies and risk management for MRO Holdings, emphasizing the need for profitability in their standalone operations. Lokad's tailored software solutions aided in creating a unified material planning process, despite the volatility of demand in the MRO industry. Their event-based forecasting provided a clearer prediction model, leading to satisfaction and a commitment to ongoing improvement in managing the ever-changing supply chain landscape.
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In a recent dialogue, Ricardo Alvarez Henao, Supply Chain Director at MRO Holdings, shared insights on the aviation MRO sector with Luciano Lisiotti of Lokad. Alvarez Henao emphasized the importance of anticipation and visibility in supply chain risk management, noting that inaccurate forecasts could lead to operational delays or surplus inventory. He also highlighted emerging trends in the MRO industry, including a post-pandemic bounce back, a trend towards partnerships, and the increasing complexity of demand. Alvarez Henao stressed the importance of embracing volatility and complexity, and the usefulness of probabilistic demand planning and forecasting. He concluded that while the MRO sector is more complex than the fast-moving consumer goods sector, the principles of leading a supply chain are similar.
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Moderated by Kevin Baumann, Lead Supply Chain Scientist at Lokad, this roundtable brought together senior executives from the retail sector for an in-depth discussion on the challenges and opportunities of the modern supply chain.
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Lokad's Co-founder, Estelle Vermorel, was a guest on the Talk Entreprise show by Challenges.
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Recorded at Paris' Ecole des Mines in summer 2023, Lokad CEO and founder, Joannes Vermorel, explains the quantitative supply chain perspective in detail and how it will shape the future of supply chain practice.
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